Beating Variance: Bankroll Management Strategies for High Stakes Poker

Poker at the highest levels brings immense pressure and variance. The swings can be dramatic, with players routinely winning or losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in a session. Even the best players face huge downswings at times. One key technique to manage the variance is through smart bankroll management.

Having a bankroll too small for the stakes leads to an unacceptably high risk of ruin. It also pressures players to move down or take shots at bigger games they aren’t properly rolled for. However with the right strategies, high stakes grinders can set themselves up for long-term profitability.

Why Bankroll Management Matters

Bankroll management refers to only playing at Sky Crown Casino stakes where you have enough money to withstand the variance. As a rule of thumb, here are the general bankroll guidelines to follow for the major poker variants:

So if you normally play $25/$50 NLHE, you should have at least $125,000 set aside for poker. Anything less leaves you underrolled and vulnerable.

The importance becomes even clearer when you crunch the numbers and model out results over thousands of simulations. Running Monte Carlo simulations of 100,000 tournaments, here is the probability of going broke over time based on number of buy-ins:

As the number of buy-ins increases, the long-term risk of ruin drops drastically. But dip under 100 buy-ins, and even short term you have close to a 50/50 shot of losing everything. Hence you want to keep your bankroll healthy relative to the stakes so you can ride out inevitable downswings.

Handling Variance and Downswings

Top high stakes players face swings of $1 million or more all the time. In 2019, Phil Ivey was up over $1.2 million in a single session playing $4,000/$8,000 PLO in Bobby’s Room. But he proceeded to give nearly all of it back later that week.

Hall of Famer Daniel Negreanu has spoken extensively about downswings too. In 2016, he lost over $3 million over just 3 months playing primarily $2,000/$4,000 limit hold’em. And that came after 6 previous years of steady winning.

“There’s no way to avoid downswings completely when playing professionally. Bankroll management helps you ride out the storm when they hit.” – Daniel Negreanu

So having the proper bankroll and mindset is key to navigating variance. Be ready to handle swings of 100 buy-ins or more in either direction. The great players take it in stride rather than panic. Have a clear gameplan in place for when to temporarily move down in stakes or take time off.

Bankroll Tips and Final Thoughts

• Don’t take shots without having a separate shot-taking bankroll equivalent to 100 buy-ins at least. Jumping way up with your entire roll is reckless.
• Conservative BRM protects you from both ruin and from tilting due to pressure. Make sure your poker income needs will be covered.
• Understand that even with perfect play, you may lose money in a given period. Focus on making +EV decisions.
• Make detailed plans for various outcomes – if you lose or win a lot in a short span, do you move up/down in limits? Take time off?
• Keep most of your bankroll safe in low variance cash games rather than high variance tournaments. Cash games have smaller swings.

In high stakes poker, bad luck can always strike and no one is immune to downswings. But by managing your bankroll wisely and avoiding unnecessary risks, you put yourself in the best position to win over the long-run. Patience and discipline ultimately triumph over variance.